A new report released during the first week of climate meetings (Dec. 7-18) in Copenhagen, Denmark, predicts a significant rise in sea levels by 2100 and calls for action by 2012 in order to have any effect on the changing climate.
The report, which was composed by a group of 26 climatologists, is a summary of hundreds of peer-reviewed research papers published in the last several years. The Copenhagen Diagnosis supersedes a 2007 report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that has been the standard for reference on climate statistics since its publication. Fourteen of the climatologists who compiled the Copenhagen Diagnosis were also authors of the 2007 IPCC report.
If we apply the predictions coming from the report to the topography of the Gulf Coast then 10 percent of Florida and Louisiana will be under water by 2100, says Sally Kneidel, Ph.D., who is the author of eleven books on nature, conservation and science topics.
The new evidence in the report includes:
- Satellite and direct measurements now demonstrate that both the Greenland and Antarctic ice-sheets are losing mass and contributing to sea level rise at an increasing rate.
- Arctic sea-ice has melted far beyond the expectations of climate models. For example, the area of summer sea-ice melt during 2007-2009 was about 40 percent greater than the average projection from the 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report.
- Sea level has risen more than 5 centimeters over the past 15 years, about 80 percent higher than IPCC projections from 2001. Accounting for ice-sheets and glaciers, global sea-level rise may exceed 1 meter by 2100, with a rise of up to 2 meters considered an upper limit by this time. This is much higher than previously projected by the IPCC. Furthermore, beyond 2100, sea level rise of several meters must be expected over the next few centuries.
- In 2008 carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels were ~40 percent higher than those in 1990. Even if emissions do not grow beyond today’s levels, within just 20 years the world will have used up the allowable emissions to have a reasonable chance of limiting warming to less than 2 degrees Celsius.
The report concludes that global emissions must peak then decline rapidly within the next five to ten years for the world to have a reasonable chance of avoiding the very worst impacts of climate change.
To stabilize climate, global emissions of carbon dioxide and other long-lived greenhouse gases need to reach near-zero well within this century, the report states.
According to the Copenhagen climatologists, by the end of this century global sea levels will rise at least twice as much as earlier predicted by the IPCC. If heat-trapping emissions are not reduced, the rise will be 1 to 2 meters by the year 2010. And they will keep on rising for centuries, for a total of several meters - even if global temperatures have been stabilized.
How might this affect Florida?
What will happen in Florida when sea levels rise? Frank Ackerman, a senior economist at the Stockholm Institute, has studied that question with computer modeling. His model projects a 27-inch rise by the year 2060, just 50 years from now.
About Florida, Ackerman says, "Our map of the area vulnerable to 27 inches of sea-level rise looks like someone took a razor to the state right above Miami and sliced off everything below that, [which includes] residential real estate worth $130 billion in that, half of Florida's beaches, two nuclear reactors, three prisons, 37 nursing homes, and on and on."
The porous limestone on which much of South Florida is built makes the area unsuitable for levees, like those built in New Orleans and the Netherlands. It will be up to individuals to protect their properties. Research by the Institute for Business & Home Safety (IBHS) has found the only ways to truly protect coastal properties from storm surge are proper elevation - 2 percent above the annual probability of exceedance levels - and by choosing the right interior finishes - wood over drywall - to minimize interior damage when water does get inside a structure. Learn more about IBHS property protection guidelines.
Dr. Hal Wanless, chairman of Geological Sciences at the University of Miami, says that rising sea levels come right up through the limestone, as was proved during Hurricane Betsy. "There's no way to put a levee around South Florida and really keep the water out."