Disaster Safety Blog

New tsunami maps can aid preparation in California

On Saturday, the fifth anniversary of the powerful tsunami that killed 225,000 people in Southeast Asia will be remembered. The vulnerability demonstrated by this devastating natural disaster should serve as a lesson for other coastal communities that have potential tsunami exposure.

Californians now have a new tool to help them better understand their risks. The California Emergency Management Agency, the California Geological Survey, and the Tsunami Research Center at the University of Southern California produced the new series of tsunami inundation maps. There are a total of 130 maps that cover 20 counties and are based on the most up-to-date data and methodologies.

Researchers said the maps were created to help emergency planners identify at-risk areas and plan for coastal evacuation and should not be used to set insurance rates or engineering standards.

There have been six tsunamis that have caused destruction along the California coast since 1812, according to state records. As the Southeast Asia tsunami illustrated, it only takes a single event to cause widespread damage, and the rebuilding process can take years. Nearly two million people were displaced when the tsunami hit, hundreds of thousands of homes were destroyed, and the area suffered tens of billions of dollars in economic losses.

Read more about your risks. View the new California maps.

Use caution to avoid unintended consequences when going "green"

Earlier this month, experts at the IBHS annual conference weighed in on the pros and cons of products adopting the "green" brand and warned of unintended consequences.

On this blog, the focus typically is on the structural aspects of "green" products and building techniques, but something in the news today is such a great example of the "unintended consequences" of a "green" device that it must be shared.

Here's an excerpt from a story posted today at Examiner.com:

New energy efficient traffic lights have been installed in several states across the country, helping cities save thousands of dollars this year, but the lights have a major drawback when it comes to wintry weather.The bulbs do not burn hot enough to melt snow and  or ice and can become crusted over during a winter storm.  When this happens, drivers can no longer tell if a light is green, red or yellow.

This has lead to dozens of accidents and at least one death across the country.  
Many cities that do have the new LED traffic lights have already found out the dangerous problem due to the winter storm that blew through the Midwest and Great Lakes, two weeks ago.

LED traffic lights use 90 percent less energy than the old incandescent lights, and can last for years oppose to the old incandescent lights, which have to be changed every 12 to 18 months.

Wisconsin, which has put LED bulbs at hundreds of intersections, projects the devices will save the state about $750,000 this year. In Minnesota, where authorities have upgraded hundreds of traffic lights to LEDs, the transportation department occasionally gets reports of an obstructed lights. But by the time a highway crew arrives, the wind has often knocked off the snow and ice, according to traffic systems specialist, Jerry Kotzenmacher.

Several states are testing possible solutions, including installing weather shields, adding heating elements or coating the lights with water-repellent substances.

Learn more about the importance of making good decisions when it comes to "green" products for your home or business by checking out the presentations made at Going Green and Building Strong, the IBHS annual conference.

Natural disasters are responsible for 90 percent of economic losses worldwide

The annual number of weather-related disasters has increased about seven-fold since the 1970s and these types of incidents are now responsible for 90 percent of economic-related losses worldwide, according to a new report released by the the Center for Research on Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED), a branch of the United Nation's World Health Organization (WHO).

Although natural disasters claimed the smallest annual toll in human life and economic loss in a decade in 2009, the causes of these disasters continued to be overwhelmingly climate related, the U.N. reported Monday. Therefore, the public should be warned against a false sense of security from the temporary decline.

"If you pull back and look at the trends over a much longer period, starting in the 1970s, you will see a very serious increase in the total number of natural disasters - about seven-fold," said CRED director Debarati Guha Sapir in a news release. "The portion of those that are weather-related is steadily increasing and is now consistently above 90 percent."

Some 58 million people have been affected by 245 natural calamities so far this year, more than 90 percent of them weather events amplified by climate change, according to the preliminary figures.

Just over 8,900 people have been killed by disasters of all kinds, with 80 percent of those deaths climate-related, according to the CRED report.

"Statistics this year show lower figures compared to previous years, which is good news for people and countries," said Margareta Wahlstrom, UN Secretary-General for Disaster Risk Reduction told journalists in Copenhagen, where UN climate talks are under way. "However, extreme weather disasters remain at the top of the list and will continue to affect more people in the future as more than half of the world's population highly exposed is living in coastal regions."

Prepare your property for a natural disaster with help from the Institute for Business & Home Safety (IBHS). Thinking of "going green" to reduce your contribution to the changing climate? Learn why it's important for a building to be as durable as it is green.

New climate report has dire warnings for coastal areas

A new report released during the first week of climate meetings (Dec. 7-18) in Copenhagen, Denmark, predicts a significant rise in sea levels by 2100 and calls for action by 2012 in order to have any effect on the changing climate.

The report, which was composed by a group of 26 climatologists, is a summary of hundreds of peer-reviewed research papers published in the last several years. The Copenhagen Diagnosis supersedes a 2007 report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that has been the standard for reference on climate statistics since its publication. Fourteen of the climatologists who compiled the Copenhagen Diagnosis were also authors of the 2007 IPCC report.

If we apply the predictions coming from the report to the topography of the Gulf Coast then 10 percent of Florida and Louisiana will be under water by 2100, says Sally Kneidel, Ph.D., who is the author of eleven books on nature, conservation and science topics. 

 
  The new evidence in the report includes:

• Satellite and direct measurements now demonstrate that both the Greenland and Antarctic ice-sheets are losing mass and contributing to sea level rise at an increasing rate.
• Arctic sea-ice has melted far beyond the expectations of climate models. For example, the area of summer sea-ice melt during 2007-2009 was about 40 percent greater than the average projection from the 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report.
• Sea level has risen more than 5 centimeters over the past 15 years, about 80 percent higher than IPCC projections from 2001. Accounting for ice-sheets and glaciers, global sea-level rise may exceed 1 meter by 2100, with a rise of up to 2 meters considered an upper limit by this time. This is much higher than previously projected by the IPCC. Furthermore, beyond 2100, sea level rise of several meters must be expected over the next few centuries.
• In 2008 carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels were ~40 percent higher than those in 1990. Even if emissions do not grow beyond today’s levels, within just 20 years the world will have used up the allowable emissions to have a reasonable chance of limiting warming to less than 2 degrees Celsius.

The report concludes that global emissions must peak then decline rapidly within the next five to ten years for the world to have a reasonable chance of avoiding the very worst impacts of climate change.

To stabilize climate, global emissions of carbon dioxide and other long-lived greenhouse gases need to reach near-zero well within this century, the report states.

According to the Copenhagen climatologists, by the end of this century global sea levels will rise at least twice as much as earlier predicted by the IPCC. If heat-trapping emissions are not reduced, the rise will be 1 to 2 meters by the year 2010. And they will keep on rising for centuries, for a total of several meters - even if global temperatures have been stabilized.

How might this affect Florida?

What will happen in Florida when sea levels rise?  Frank Ackerman, a senior economist at the Stockholm Institute, has studied that question with computer modeling. His model projects a 27-inch rise by the year 2060, just 50 years from now.

About Florida, Ackerman says, "Our map of the area vulnerable to 27 inches of sea-level rise looks like someone took a razor to the state right above Miami and sliced off everything below that, [which includes] residential real estate worth $130 billion in that, half of Florida's beaches, two nuclear reactors, three prisons, 37 nursing homes, and on and on."

The porous limestone on which much of South Florida is built makes the area unsuitable for levees, like those built in New Orleans and the Netherlands. It will be up to individuals to protect their properties. Research by the Institute for Business & Home Safety (IBHS) has found the only ways to truly protect coastal properties from storm surge are proper elevation - 2 percent above the annual probability of exceedance levels - and by choosing the right interior finishes - wood over drywall - to minimize interior damage when water does get inside a structure. Learn more about IBHS property protection guidelines.

Dr. Hal Wanless, chairman of Geological Sciences at the University of Miami, says that rising sea levels come right up through the limestone, as was proved during Hurricane Betsy. "There's no way to put a levee around South Florida and really keep the water out."

Do your homework before building "green", experts say

If a home or business owner really wants to improve the environmental performance of their property - whether it's existing or just a dream with blue prints - they really only need to focus on two things: strong construction and energy efficiency.

That was the message delivered during Going Green and Building Strong, a conference hosted by the Institute for Business & Home Safety (IBHS) this week at Innisbrook Resort in Palm Harbor, Fla.

The aim of the conference was to increase awareness about the importance of quality construction practices that will result in long-term resiliency for buidings everywhere, which not only is good for the environment but also helps preserve communities if a natural disaster strikes.

The term "green" may have lost some of its meaning because of overuse and it's often difficult to quantify what products, building techniques and rating systems will give consumers, builders and insurers the most effective outcome, said John F. Straube, Ph.D., P.E., who is director at the Building Engineering Group and a principal with the Building Science Corporation.

Meanwhile, local and state governments also must find ways to cope with the interest from homeowners, contractors and builders who all hope to build or retrofit properties as part of the "green" construction movement. This is an area where quality building codes can help.

There are hundreds of programs that claim to help property owners be greener, but some are more reliable than others, said Mike Barcik, director of technical services for Southface, a nonprofit that works with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE).

The U.S. Green Building Council, which offers the LEED registration and certification program, is among the most well known, said Tony Rivas, LEED AP, who spoke about the program during the conference.

It's just a matter of time before modern building codes catch up with the latest trends to push homes and businesses to be more energy efficient, said David L. Karmol, vice president of federal and external relations for the International Code Council, who discussed the ICC's push to reconcile its code with the what the DOE requires.  He also talked about the development of the new ICC Green Code.

The "green" movement is constantly evolving, so the best advice for consumers, contractors and the financial services industry is to become as well educated as possible and look for assurances in the form of certifications, inspections and most importantly - time-tested products that perform well long term.

All of the existing programs that offer registration, certification or accreditation as "green" could do more to improve the durability of the home or business, said IBHS Chief Engineer Tim Reinhold, Ph.D.

The new IBHS Research Center will present a unique setting for evaluating many green products, building techniques and practices, said IBHS President & CEO Julie Rochman. The lab will come online in fall 2010.

Could night flying helicopter attacks curb wildfire threat in California?

A push by local officials in Los Angeles County, Calif., has the U.S. Forest Service reconsidering a policy it abandoned in the 1980s.

The Associated Press reports Forest Service Fire and Aviation Management Director Tom Harbour said the agency is reviewing a policy that would allow helicopters to attack wildfires at night. The Forest Service experimented with night flying against wildfires in the 1970s and early 1980s, but abandoned it after a helicopter collision.

The reconsideration of the policy comes after a move by the Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors last week. The board is pushing for broader use of night flying after a wildfire in Angeles National Forest last summer burned more than 250 square miles, destroyed 89 homes and led to the deaths of two firefighters.

If allowed, the night flying policy change would be a major shift for an agency with more than 10,000 firefighters that manages 200 million acres of public land.

"We are in the process ... of one more time taking a look at night-flying operations. But we will have to make sure that those operations, before we change our policy, are worth the benefits," Harbour told the Associated Press.

It is possible to protect homes, businesses and agricultural properties against wildfire damage. The key is to begin the process before a wildfire threatens and to take whatever steps are necessary to create a fire-resistant building and area around that building that extends as far as possible - preferably 100 feet, according to the Institute for Business & Home Safety (IBHS).

Get started today with a free IBHS Wildfire Retrofit Guide created specifically for the region where you live or work.

Disasters, mitigation and finances on agenda for worldwide talks

Next month, the United Nations will meet in Copenhagen, Denmark, to discuss various topics related to changing climates and the worldwide implications. Below is a list of links to reports that may be of interest to insurers. The Institute for Business & Home Safety (IBHS) recognizes insurers, in many cases, have more questions than answers when it comes to our changing climate and the potential effectson properties. Learn more about this issue at the IBHS conference Going Green and Building Strong - register now.

DISASTER VULNERABILITY

As the climate changes during the 21st century, larger cyclone-driven storm surges and growing populations may collide in disasters of unprecedented size. Variations in coastal morphology will magnify the effects in some areas, while largely insulating others. Climate Change and the Future Impacts of Storm-Surge Disasters in Developing Countries, a September 2009 report by the Center for Global Development, looks at the vulnerability of 84 developing countries and 577 cyclone-vulnerable big coastal cities.

Many of the largest cities in Asia are on the coast or within major river deltas, making them highly susceptible to rising sea level, storm threats and other impacts of climate change, says a November 2009 report by the World Wildlife Fund, Mega-Stress for Mega-Cities.

FINANCE

Financing climate mitigation and adaptation in developing countries is a key challenge confronting climate negotiators. Climate Finance, this November 2009 policy brief by the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University, looks at policy measures that might make up key elements of a finance agreement, from reform of the Clean Development Mechanism to revamping of energy subsidies.

In an effort to estimate the potential costs of adapting to climate change, the World Bank looks at seven test countries - Bangladesh, Bolivia, Ethiopia, Ghana, Mozambique, Samoa and Vietnam - in this September 2009 report, Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change.

MIGRATION/DISPLACEMENT

Many more people are displaced each year by climate-related natural disasters than by conflict and violence as climate change increases the frequency and intensity of threats, note the U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs and the Internal Displacement Monitoring Center in a September 2009 study, Monitoring disaster displacement in the context of climate change.

TECHNOLOGY

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions is the safest and most predictable way to moderate climate change. But engineering the planet's climate to remove greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere or to reflect sunlight to curb warming may also be needed if emissions are not reduced sufficiently, suggests the British Royal Society in a September 2009 report, Geoengineering the climate: Science, governance and uncertainty.

Proposed legislation seeks to elevate mitigation priorities

The chairman of the Homeland Security Committee in the U.S. House of Representatives is moving ahead with a “pre-disaster mitigation package” of legislation that is designed to result in tangible, effective, and long lasting “on-the-ground” benefits for homeowners, small businesses, residents of apartment buildings, and first responders.

Rep. Bennie G. Thompson, D-Mississippi, is seeking support among other members of Congress for three bills introduced earlier this year.

"Our country continues to battle natural disasters that have increased in frequency, severity, and cost to the federal government," Thompson wrote in a letters to his colleagues Monday. "In light of this fact, I strongly believe that the nation needs new policies and tools that emphasize predisaster planning and mitigation to help save lives, reduce injury, physical damage and recovery costs."

The legislation includes:

• The Predisaster Hazard Mitigation Enhancement Program Act of 2009 (H.R. 3027). The bill creates a $100 million competitive grant award program to complement and bolster certain existing grant programs. The new program would be authorized for five years and provide states with funds for projects that have a direct, “on-the-ground” impact for low and moderate income homeowners and residents of single family dwellings, as well as for the residents of apartments and small business owners.
  
• The Hazard Mitigation For All Act of 2009 (H.R. 3028). The bill would provide $50 million in fiscal years 2010 to 2013 for predisaster mitigation activities for an often excluded segment of our population — residents of public housing authorities, recipients of Section 8 vouchers, and residents of assisted housing. HUD would be responsible for protecting the mitigation investment of the federal government by requiring that homeowners of private Section 8 or assisted housing-eligible property who accept grant funds give an admission preference to housing applicants for a period of five years.
  
• The First Responder Innovation & Support Act of 2009 (H.R. 3026). This bill would provide $100 million from fiscal year 2010 to 2015 for novel or innovative first responder grants. Innovative programs include projects to address special populations, such as children or the elderly, and projects that serve a particular community need, such as mobile nursing units for rural communities or wireless technologies to improve the interoperability of first responder networks—like that between FEMA and local police forces.

While the Institute for Business & Home Safety (IBHS) is not a lobbying organization, we support the principles and goals outlined in Rep. Thompson's legislative package. The legislation also has been endorsed by SmarterSafer.org, a diverse ad-hoc coalition of consumer advocacy, taxpayer, environmental and insurance industry groups whose membership includes, among others, the National Wildlife Federation, American Rivers, Americans for Prosperity, the Sierra Club, Plan!tNow, and the Defenders of Wildlife.

IBHS engineers have created a variety of property protection projects that can help to prevent the damaging effects of natural and manmade disasters. This free information is available at www.DisasterSafety.org.

Wildfires increase risk of storm damage, USGS study finds

A new U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) study predicts a wet winter for parts of California, including high-intensity storms that could cause damage.

The study released Tuesday determined even normal rainstorms this winter would likely produce large debris flows in the hills and canyons above La Crescenta and La Cañada Flintridge, the Glendale News Press reports.

High-intensity and short-duration storms could even trigger mudflows, USGS Research Geologist Susan Cannon said. The message to foothill residents, many of whom fled the large Station wildfire in August: Prepare for the worst. The fire stripped bare the landscape, which could aggravate the situation during storm season.

Storm season begins next week - Oct. 15.

Areas burned in the Station fire were most at risk of being overwhelmed by debris flows, according to the USGS study. Because the land was stripped of rain-catching vegetation, officials said even a little rain could trigger a debris flow.

“There would be a 100 percent chance there would be a small storm this upcoming season, which could trigger debris flows,” said Paul Laustsen, a USGS spokesman.

Accurate flood mapping could save properties, but officials are fighting back

As the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) redraws flood maps that define coverage eligibility for the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), some city and state officials are opposing the move because it could interfere with development, The New York Times reports.

A few weeks ago, the Times reported on the Institute for Business & Home Safety's report, HURRICANE IKE: Nature's Force vs. Structural Strength, which highlighted the true risks facing coastal properties that are improperly elevated to the 100-year Base Flood Elevation and therefore are at increased risk of damage from storm surge. The report also called for FEMA and the NFIP to do more to encourage proper elevation in high risk areas by publishing updated maps that illustrate a 500-year flood risk. Read the report.

In an article in today's Times, a reporter tells the story of Portland, Maine, where more accurate federal flood insurance maps for the city's harbor would shift the city's stretch of piers into a new classification that could experience higher waves and more damage. That would end the city's ambitious pier-top development plans and threaten the fishing fleet, officials told the Times.

Here is an excerpt from the full article:

The shift means that construction of new buildings would be effectively prohibited on the sturdy plank piers, which lobstermen have shared for years with restaurants, office space, even some condominiums.

Existing structures would also face a grim future. They could be rebuilt to half of their current value if a hurricane rakes them into the ocean. That concerns city officials, who worry the wharfs could slip into disrepair if pier owners see little economic reason to maintain them, prompting memories of a dark period of harbor dilapidation in the 1970s.

"We think this designation is extreme. It goes too far," said Penny St. Louis Littell, director of the city's planning department. "Our harbor has not had that kind of damage."

Many communities are facing economic development challenges as the Federal Emergency Management Agency uses new technologies and sharpened science to update floodplain maps. Plane-mounted lasers are capturing the terrain below with much more precision, and updated computer models account for rising risk of floods associated with stronger hurricanes.

Wave velocity can be inconvenient

Often, the result is a larger floodplain. More homes and business are considered vulnerable. That can complicate development projects -- or prohibit them entirely. That move is generally applauded by environmental groups, which believe the federal government has encouraged construction along coastlines vulnerable to climate change through overly cheap public insurance programs.

FEMA, for its part, is following orders from Congress. The remapping is meant to save lives, prevent damage and reduce the National Flood Insurance Program's huge exposure to loss.

The proposed maps for Portland would designate the harbor a "V Zone," where winds and waves can act in tandem to tear a building down. The piers currently fall within the relatively lenient "A Zone," which requires new buildings to be slightly raised.

"We follow the science," said one FEMA official involved in the process. "And the science doesn't always take us to places that are convenient."

The sea near Portland has risen about 8 inches since 1912. Greenhouse gas emissions appear to be hastening that rate. Ocean temperatures are warming more quickly than in the past, having risen about 2 degrees Fahrenheit since 1970. Water expands as a result, and the "rate of sea-level rise has accelerated in recent decades," according to a study released this year by the University of Maine.

"V Zone" is short for velocity zone, one of the most dangerous areas identified by FEMA. Wind-driven waves are apt to rise 3 feet before smashing into structures. The result is bleak.

"The forces involved in V Zone flooding would topple almost any building or do substantial structural damage," said David Conrad, an expert on the flood insurance program with the National Wildlife Federation. "That's why it's critical to locate where those areas are."